Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thought that a joint war against Iran with US President Donald Trump would oust Tehran’s clerical rulers and strengthen his political position ahead of upcoming elections in Israel.
Netanyahu wanted to establish himself as the architect of a US-Israeli alliance that would change the political reality of the Middle East.
But in reality, none of this has happened. Instead, Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is now on the verge of a head-on confrontation with Trump, as Trump seeks to remove himself from the war, while neither leader’s goals have been met and Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon has been stalled by the peace deal.
Israeli officials are now publicly cautious, not wanting to anger their most important ally. Trump is known for being sensitive to critics and quickly becoming irritated by them.
While not wanting to anger Trump, Israeli frustration with the deal is clear in private conversations. A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the initial US deal with Iran as “terrible for Israel.” In a candid assessment, he said, “From the prime minister to the army chief, there is no one in the Israeli leadership who sees it differently.”
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is set to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. The specific terms of the agreement were not immediately known. However, mediator Pakistan said the agreement calls for a permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Washington says it will negotiate the terms of a full agreement within the next 60 days, while the ceasefire remains in effect, that would seek to address US and Israeli concerns, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program.
But Israeli officials told Reuters they believe the deadline for negotiations under the deal will likely be extended, limiting Israel’s ability to take military action, but their concerns will still not be resolved.
Netanyahu and Trump have repeatedly clashed over Israel’s reluctance to limit its operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. A halt to Israeli attacks on Lebanon (in the ceasefire proposal) is one of Iran’s main demands.
Earlier this month, Trump called Netanyahu “completely crazy” in an angry phone call after ordering him not to attack Beirut while trying to broker a deal with Iran. Netanyahu called off the attack that day. But a week later, he launched an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Iran responded by launching missile strikes on Israel, and Trump publicly rebuked both sides.
He is the President of the United States, I am the Prime Minister of Israel. We often agree, and there are times when we disagree. My responsibility is to ensure Israel’s security interests.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel
Hours before the US and Iran announced their deal, Israel struck again on Sunday in the Lebanese capital, following rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel. Trump described the attacks as “small and pointless.”
Later, at a press conference in Jerusalem on Monday night, Netanyahu admitted that he and Trump sometimes have differences of opinion.
“He is the president of the United States, I am the prime minister of Israel. We agree many times, and there are times when we disagree. My responsibility is to ensure Israel’s security interests,” Netanyahu said.
Israel is set to hold national elections in October. Netanyahu is expected to lose the vote this time. At the same time, he is under pressure from Israeli public opinion. Opinion polls show that Israelis’ confidence in the US president’s commitment to Israel’s security is steadily declining.
‘Iran-US agreement not binding’
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is set to be formally signed in Switzerland next Friday. The specific terms of the agreement were not immediately known, but mediator Pakistan said the deal calls for a permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Netanyahu said Israel would not withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon and would retain the “freedom to retaliate” against Hezbollah attacks. “Iran wanted us to withdraw, but we are standing firm,” he told reporters.
The deal will allow for the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but the future of Tehran’s nuclear program remains uncertain. The 60-day deadline for negotiations on the deal will be used to try to reach a final decision. Efforts will also be made to move towards a permanent agreement during that time.
Both Netanyahu and Trump have argued for a justification for going to war with Iran by limiting Iran’s missile program and curbing its support for Tehran-backed regional armed groups. These issues are not believed to be on the agenda in future talks on the deal.
Three Israeli officials said Israel believes the 60-day interim agreement will most likely be extended to 90 days.
At this time, the United States will move towards a comprehensive agreement through negotiations and maintain its military presence in the region.
Two other Israeli officials said Israel was completely taken aback by the news last week when Trump first said a deal with Iran was almost final. They acknowledged that Israel had not been very successful in influencing the talks.
The Israeli officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
Netanyahu has long presented himself to the Israeli public as a leader particularly skilled at handling relations with Republican Trump.
During Trump’s first term, Israel was able to secure several important policy changes from Washington, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and supporting the Abraham Accords, which established formal diplomatic relations with Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
On the other hand, Trump canceled the ‘Iran nuclear deal’ made during the Obama administration, which Israel had long accused of being too lax or weak.
During the 2019 election, Netanyahu put up huge campaign billboards in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, showing him and Trump smilingly shaking hands.
But now the US-Iran deal is undermining Netanyahu’s claim. He once said his close relationship with Trump set him apart from other prime ministerial candidates. But this time he won’t be able to make the deal acceptable to the Israeli public, says Jonathan Reinhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University.Read more
US-Iran peace deal has become a ‘political nightmare’ for Netanyahu
“The most he (Netanyahu) can hope for now is that they fail to reach a final agreement and the war starts again within 60 days. If that happens, the situation will be favorable for Israel,” Reinhold said.
According to a poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute on Friday, only 41 percent of Jewish Israelis believe their security is a central concern for Trump, down from 64 percent in March.
Netanyahu’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen said Israel would be prepared to take unilateral action if Iran re-establishes its nuclear and missile capabilities, but he said Tehran was unlikely to take such action during Trump’s term.
