Although the economy has returned to activity since the elected government took over the responsibility of running the country, the macroeconomic environment is still not free from risks. Due to the energy crisis, the pressure of imports on the economy is continuously increasing. Inflationary pressure is still high. There is no good news in investment. Revenue collection is slow. There is no improvement in employment either.
As a result, the Finance Department believes that the macroeconomics is not yet risk-free. In such a situation, the Finance Department has called a meeting of the Working Group on the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework for the 2026-27 fiscal year on November 1. The meeting will be presided over by Manjurul Haque, Joint Secretary of the Macroeconomics Sub-Division of the Finance Department. This information has been learned from relevant sources.
It is learned that the meeting will discuss the first quarter GDP growth of the 2026-27 fiscal year and other macroeconomic indicators. In addition, the medium-term macroeconomic framework will be reviewed. In addition, in view of the government’s decision to launch the fiscal year in the April-March period from the 2028-29 fiscal year, various macroeconomic indicators for the 9 months of July-March will be calculated, considering the 2027-28 fiscal year as a transitional fiscal year.
According to BBS data, although inflation has decreased slightly, it is still above eight percent. Economic growth was stuck at 4.14 percent in the last fiscal year. This year too, the growth trend is slow. Private sector credit flow has fallen to its lowest level. As a result, the desired balance between growth, price stability, investment and employment has not yet been established. In such a reality, the meeting will review the overall situation of the country’s macroeconomics.
According to sources, the meeting will review inflation control, economic growth momentum, foreign exchange reserves, revenue collection, government expenditure, private investment, employment and the banking sector situation. It may also provide guidance on what kind of policy support is needed in which sectors in the coming days by identifying the current risks to the economy.
Increasing pressure on fuel imports
The energy sector has been the biggest pressure on import spending in the past few months. Bangladesh’s energy import bill has risen to a record $10.63 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, more than double the $5.13 billion in the previous fiscal year. As a result, import spending has become a major risk to the macroeconomic environment due to increased dollar demand, pressure on reserves, increased fuel subsidies, and rising industrial production costs.
According to the latest figures from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), point-to-point inflation in the country increased slightly to 8.32 percent in September. It was 8.26 percent in August.
Big blow to growth
Another major weakness of the economy is growth. According to the latest provisional estimate of the BBS, the country’s GDP growth in the 2025-26 fiscal year was 4.14 percent. In the previous fiscal year, the final estimate was 3.49 percent. In other words, despite a slight turnaround, growth has not yet returned to the average growth rate of more than six percent of the previous decade. This growth trend has slowed down every year.
Meanwhile, in the current 2026-27 fiscal year budget, the government has set a growth target of 6.50 percent. At the same time, it aims to reduce inflation to 7.50 percent. In other words, the government has set a big goal of increasing growth by about two and a half percentage points in one fiscal year from the current 4.14 percent.
However, the forecasts of international organizations are much more cautious than the government’s target. The IMF has given a weak forecast for Bangladesh’s growth in the current period and has cited fiscal, inflation, and banking sector pressures. The World Bank has also identified slow economic growth, weak revenue collection, banking sector pressures, and weak private investment as major challenges.
Stagnation in investment
One of the biggest weaknesses of the economy is the lack of private investment. According to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank, credit growth in the private sector fell to just 4.47 percent in June. This rate was 4.98 percent in May. Although private credit growth was close to five percent earlier, it has now come down to a low level.
Increasing pressure on employment
The biggest impact of the slowdown in economic growth is on employment. According to the latest Labor Force Survey 2024, the total labor force in the country is 71.1 million 10 thousand. Of these, 48.2 million are men and 23.6 million are women. And an average of 1.3 million 60 thousand people are entering the labor market every year. That is, employment needs to be created for about 1.3-1.4 million new people every year. But if investment and production do not increase at the desired rate, it will be difficult to create quality employment for this large population. Especially, youth employment is now a big challenge for the economy.
