The war was supposed to end quickly. But even after six months, the United States and Israel could not subdue Iran. Massive airstrikes caused major damage to Iran’s military infrastructure. Important officials, including the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed. Yet the Iranian regime did not collapse. The people did not revolt against the government.
Now, military war has been replaced by economic war. Washington’s new goal is to further pressure Iran’s economy. The hope is that ordinary people will rise up against the government in the face of the economic crisis. But analysts say that this strategy may not bring the desired results for the United States either.
Rather, the US’s goal in the six-month war is now in question. What does Washington want—the fall of the Iranian government, surrender, or a negotiated settlement? There is no clear answer.
“This war has failed to achieve the US’s goals,” is the direct assessment of Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
Suzanne Maloney, head of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy department, also believes the war was a failure. According to her, the United States has inflicted significant damage on Iran. But Iran has emerged stronger than before.
Where is Trump’s ‘freedom’?
On February 28, the day the war began, US President Donald Trump told the Iranians, “Your time for freedom is near.” Six months later, his administration is imposing even tougher economic pressure on Iran.
The goal is to take the economy to a point where the common people become angry and rise up against the government. But so far, that calculation has not been met.
Iran’s leadership has become even more rigid. The influence of military officials has increased. The rulers see their own survival as the survival of the country. They associate the sacrifice of ordinary people with patriotism, even the dignity of martyrs. Even the slightest dissent is being suppressed with a heavy hand.
As a result, not only has the US failed to subdue Iran with military force, but Trump’s promise of ‘freedom’ now sounds largely hollow.
Iran, damaged by the bomb, yet unshakable
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several of his officials were killed in a surprise joint US-Israeli attack dubbed ‘Operation Epic Fury’. His son and current successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, was seriously injured.
Weeks of intense bombing destroyed much of Iran’s air force and navy, and the country’s missile program was also damaged.
But this did not bring down the government. There was no major breakdown in leadership. The people did not take to the streets either.
Instead, the Iranian military reactivated many missile launch systems and then attacked key US allies and US military bases in the Middle East.
The biggest countermeasure came in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran at one point effectively closed the strait, causing major instability in the global energy and economic sectors.
Thousands of Iranians have been killed in the war, including children. The death toll is difficult to independently verify. In addition, 18 US soldiers have been killed.
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Military operations have now been replaced by economic pressure.
On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant announced ‘Operation Economic Outcast’, which aims to further isolate Iran and cripple its battered economy.
Besant said the operation aims to eliminate Iran’s “last remaining option.” He added that the operation will grow stronger every day and will continue until the Iranian government is left alone.
But here is the big question—where does it end?
Does the United States want to overthrow the Iranian government? Does it want to force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz? Or does it want to bring Iran back to the negotiating table by increasing economic pressure?
Esfandiar Batmanghelijad, a researcher at the London-based Bourse and Markets Foundation, said the US’s goals were unclear. He said sanctions cannot be used to force a country to change its behavior without specifying what kind of change is being sought.
Iran already has thousands of sanctions in place, so analysts say it is unlikely that Tehran will capitulate to more sanctions.
Rather, the risk of retaliation could increase. Iran could increase attacks on ships and US allies in the Persian Gulf, which could create the situation for another US military strike.
“The United States has the capacity to harm Iran,” said Sina Tusi, a researcher at the Center for International Policy. “But the path from that harm to surrender or government collapse is not clear.”
The path to reconciliation is getting narrower.
The ambiguity of the US’s goals is also raising questions in Tehran. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, said that Iran’s leadership is asking: does the US want collapse, surrender, or compromise?
Iran sees US economic sanctions as another form of war. So there are two major risks to the new US strategy.
If pressure fails, Washington could turn to military action. If pressure succeeds, Iran could take even bigger countermeasures to break the US naval blockade.
According to Vaiz, sanctions can create new roles for war rather than being an alternative to it.
Iranian President Masoud Pajhwok and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, however, have spoken of the economic necessity of ending the war, warning that starving people and economic collapse could lead to dire consequences.
Yet Tehran’s position in talks with Washington remains tough. Iran wants to at least return to the June agreement, which Trump signed. Now, however, he has declared it “over.”
Iran and Oman are also continuing discussions on the Strait of Hormuz, but there is a big difference between Tehran’s position and the kind of arrangement the United States would accept.
Iran’s leadership is unwilling to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz despite its economic collapse. At the same time, they are not confident in Trump’s promises. There are also deep doubts about whether the promises of lifting sanctions or providing economic benefits will ultimately be implemented.
No war, no peace.
The conflict is currently at a standstill. The two sides are not directly attacking each other. The blockade on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz is also relatively relaxed. As a result, some oil is being supplied.
Analysts are seeing this situation as a kind of ‘phony war’.
One advantage of the strategy of increasing economic pressure is that its impact is slow and not easily measured. It also reduces the heat of conflict. It could give Trump and the Republicans a political advantage ahead of the November midterm elections. It could also send a message that victory is close.
But this stalemate could pose a great danger.
Elie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there is a growing perception in the White House that a deal with the Islamic Republic is not possible. The same perception is emerging in Tehran.
His warning is, ‘These are dangerous times.’ Because if either side assumes that no agreement with the other is possible, the conflict could again turn military.
Former US State Department official Jeremy Shapiro also questioned why Trump is not choosing a path to end this long and unpopular war.
According to him, by imposing more sanctions, the Trump administration is pretending that the war is still going on. When they wanted to, they could have claimed victory in the war. Or they could have admitted that they had lost.
This six-month conflict has finally brought to light a hard truth: The United States has the power to strike Iran, but no way to subdue it.
And the ordinary people of Iran are paying the greatest price for the stalemate in the war.
